The Ambitious Trader: Stocks, Trading, Investing..My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

This is a one way ticket that takes you on a wonderful journey into the vast world that is the stock market through my eyes, my point of view.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Here We Go Again...

The DJIA and the rest of indices plunge once again. So what else is new? They say that the trend is your friend and that you must follow it. Looking at the current market trend, we should all be cautious and perhaps, stand on the sidelines. Many were calling bottoms and oversold conditions but one must remember that the market moves in its own rhythm and speed. Look at PDO for instance. How many times were people calling tops on PDO as it pushed itself higher and higher. It was moving in its own rhythm and speed, which at the time, was unlike any other stock and index (besides MXC). So maybe the indices are facing higher downside pressure than before. Perhaps it will take a bit more of a drop to place an oversold condition. We maybe getting close. Fear is starting to rise and spread all over Wall Street. Just look at the VIX. The VIX just touched over 30 today. It took another 200+ point drop to get here. If we see a clear reversal of this down move, then we may be ripe for an oversold bounce. If the VIX stays near its high and the indices stay at their lows by the end of the day, then watch out tomorrow and perhaps the rest of the week.

5 Comments:

At 8:53 PM , Blogger Yre said...

Hi Nick,
If market takes a plunge why dont you dive down the cliff and enjoy the ride and pick the gem of short selling candidates.. I know.. it is a daunting thing to short as weak stocks have highest resilience and can pounce back due to volatility..I know this caz I have my fingures burnt one many times due to wrong timing.. even though I was eventually right.. but anyway .2 cents for the market.

 
At 6:00 PM , Blogger Chad said...

I'm no fan of "dive[ing] down the cliff" but I do enjoy some volatility. ...from the sidelines.

 
At 8:25 PM , Blogger Yre said...

Well put. What a reversal..

 
At 12:38 AM , Blogger Nick M. said...

Yre,

I normally do not like shorting. I try to refrain from it as much as possible. It's not an ethics issue, but rather one that involves return potential. To me, the small gain that I can make on a short position is not worth the risk. I try to time them well, but timing a short position can be more difficult than timing a long position. So because of this difficulty, I tend to shy away from taking in too many short positions. Besides, the markets seem to have some pep since Tuesdays slight reversal. So far, my long positions are holding up fine. If the situation worsens, then i may short.

 
At 12:40 AM , Blogger Nick M. said...

Chad,

the sidelines seem like the best spot to sit for now. But don't sit around for too long. There are some short term opportunities popping up on the long side...they may not last long but they will provide decent returns.

 

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