The Ambitious Trader: Stocks, Trading, Investing..My Ambitions as a Trader and Investor

This is a one way ticket that takes you on a wonderful journey into the vast world that is the stock market through my eyes, my point of view.

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Wanted: Oil and Gas stocks that are still cheap!!

That's right, ladies and gents,

I'm on a quest to find you some oil and gas stocks that are still cheap. My search will no be just limited to companies that are in the exploration and production aspect of the business. Instead, I will also include companies that are involved with drilling, oil and gas field equipment, etc. I will try to list as many as I can and try to give you as much background info + charts as possible. If I don't finish today, I will try to finish tomorrow. I am on a time budget and I have two exams I need to study for, so bear with me!

The first group is:

*all industry groups are classified under the William O'Neil Industry group classification*

Oil and Gas- U.S. Exploration and Production Industry Stocks

GMX Resources (GMXR) is one Niceeee stock! I like to think of it as an undervalued Chesapeake Energy (CHK) or at least a younger one. The stock has been on fire the last few days and the stock even hit a new 52 wk high of 26.50! The stock was at 20 dollars just a few days ago! Unbelievable to some, but in the world of hot oil and gas stocks, expect the unexpected! The analysts predict it will go to $31/32. I say it hits $35/36!


Warren Resources (WRES) is another undervalued candidate! I bet many of you haven't even heard of WRES, but after today, you will know all about it. The stock has been on fire since the early trading hours, with 536,000 shares (roughly double the average amount) and a new 52 wk high of 15.61! The stock is currently up +8.85% and I expect this run to continue without too much slowdown until the stock nears $20.


Ultra Petroleum (UPL) is another goody. Although this is an AMEX stock, you should not be worried about it being too thinly traded, or heavily manipulated as an AMEX stock. This stock is running around 53.70 and has already knocked out its previous 52wk high of 53.09. The stock usually trades 1,460,000 shares on average. My initial target for this stocks is $61.


Arena Resources (ARD) is another AMEX traded oil and gas stock that I believe you must own. It is currently trading around $24.67 and even hit a 52wk hi of 25.00 today! This stock is a little more thinly traded than UPL, averaging around 94,000 shares daily. The current volume is at 261,000, so its doing just fine! The stock is trading +1.86/ +8.15% above yesterdays close of 22.81! Analysts predict ARD will hit $36. I say it hits at least $40 the way its going!


KCS Energy Inc (KCS) is another one of my favorite oil stocks. I believe that this stock will be another sleeper! The stock hit a 52wk high of 27.26 and closed at 27.22! Now that's a nice close! I firmly believe that KCS will hit $35 real soon!


Carrizo Oil and Gas (CRZO) is an awesome stock that is poised to soak in the maximum potential of the Great Oil and Gas Rush! Recently, Fortune named it one of the 15 Fastest Growing Companies! CRZO closed at 30.12 and hit a 52wk high of 30.78 today! I say this stock hits $37 soon!


NGAS Resources (NGAS) is the one of the riskier plays. This stock has been on fire lately and could wind up at $20 rather quickly, just from momentum alone! Use caution when playing NGAS, and don't go too crazy with it! The stock had an impressive run today, where it hit a 52wk high of 14.00 and closed at 14.00 as well! Now that nice! It went up +2.05 / +17.15%!!!


Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is still good! How can I talk about Oil and Gas and not talk about CHK?! I say this stock hits $45! I still think anything below $38 is a buy! Hurry up, time is almost up!


Southwestern Energy Corp (SWN) is the best one in the group (right now) but I think that SWN has already had quite a run up! The stock went from $20 to $71.32 in a year! Believe me, it could go higher! The stock can still hit $80 without a problem! It's just that right now I prefer the cheaper, smaller companies! You can play SWN if you want, at your own risk!

That's all for this group! I know, there are other notables like ENY, and ABP, etc! But for now I want to concentrate on these! If for any reason, I have others that I want to add to the group, I will do so! I may also change my mind on one of the listed ones and exclude it, replacing it with another potential!
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'Kay, who's next???

Oil & Gas- machinery and Equipment Industry Group

The only attractive and great one that I can think of is...

Grant Prideco (GRP) is on point with the drill bits that they are providing to the Oil and Gas exploration and production industry! This company is cheap also! I can easily see it hitting $60 or higher once the numbers come in for all the sales they have closed! Geez, what are waiting for?! Grab some Grant Prideco! Oh by the way, the stock is at $40.48! This is arguably my favorite company in the group!


Ok, if you want to play this sector with a little more risk, try CE Franklin (CFK), a Canadian company that trades on the AMEX. It also provides the oil and gas companies with equipment and machinery. I imagine that it will one day be very profitable with all the Oil Sands projects going on. So if you want, grab some CFK. But I'm just letting you know, CFK is a little volatile and can drop back to the $9 range. As a long term investment, CFK is great. It doesn't work that well if you just want to trade it. I will say this though, I am glad that the stock is currently trading at average volume! Just 2 weeks (or less) ago it was a mess and now with the increase in 2Q sales, its like a rocket! I expect 3rd quarter sales to be great as well! The stock is currently at 11.40 and trading on average, 150,000 shares! if you want, buy 200-1000 shares max!

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Oil & Gas-Drilling Industry group

I got a couple of good ones in this group!

First up....


Pioneer Drilling Co. (PDC) is my favorite Oil and Gas Drilling company. It achieves this wonderful status because of several reasons. Number one is, that the company is undervalued. This stock is valued at least at $30 or more. Jim Cramer believes it is a $40 stock. I say this stock will be trading at $55 eventually. I also like the company because it is kicking the crap out of its competition, especially with sales growth. It has a 1yr sales growth of over 70% and has earnings that have been improving, quarter after quarter. In addition, it operates 50 land drilling rigs. In 2004, it acquired more rigs (about 7) from Wolverine Drilling and an additional 5 from Allen Drilling. The icing on the cake is the fact that Chesapeake Energy has a big interest in PDC and has bought 17% stake in the company! The truth is, there are a lot of great things about PDC. The stock is currently trading at 19.00. Grab some before its too late!!


Ensco International Inc (ESV) is a top notch driller, weighing in at $45.29! You gotta take a look at its quarters! It has made considerable improvements, each and every quarter! It really looks that good! ESV operates about 50 offshore rigs. My estimates lead me to believe that ESV will soon see $60! Note: Jim Cramer also pumped ESV, and he gave it the thumbs up! I sure hope this doesn't sabotage ESV! Just kidding, it wont!


Patterson-UTI Energy (PTEN) is my 2nd favorite driller! Just like ESV, PTEN's quarter results are outstanding! The stock is currently trading at $35.43. It still looks inexpensive as well. My estimate for PTEN is $45.34 for now. PTEN operates 361 rigs and has the 2nd largest drilling fleet (land based) in North America. PTEN has achieved a 1yr sales growth of +29%! It expects to improve upon this number for this years sales growth numbers.


Rowan Cos (RDC) is another undervalued oil driller play. RDC is currently trading at 34.93, when it should really be trading at $63! Looking at the Earnings Quarters, you will see one improvement after the other. My opinion is that with such a continuing demand for oil and gas, these quarter improvements will also continue, and help propel RDC to new heights in no time! RDC has 24 jack-up rigs, 18 land rigs and 1 submersible rig. RDC performs drilling in the United States and in Canada as well. Note: Jimbo Cramer also mentioned RDC in one his shows segments. Well I like it too, so I'm recommending it as well!


Todco (THE) is the final driller that I want to talk about (at least for now, lol). THE trades at 41.01 and also hit its 52wk high of 41.20 today as well. THE is also a new publicly traded company, since it became an IPO in 2004! The company also boasts 22% insider ownership, which is not bad! With improving earnings and increased sales growth and the ever growing demand for drilling, I believe that 2005-2006 will also be good to THE. I believe that THE will see $61 easily!

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Oil & Gas- Field Services Industry group


RPC Inc (RES) is my favorite in this group. I really like RES because the company insider own a large stake (roughly 67%!) and they are not letting go of it! The have their hands tightly wrapped around RES. When I look at RES and I look at its peers, like BHI and SLB, I realize how inexpensive RES looks at $25.89 (and believe me, it is!). The company provides a wide variety of services for Oil and gas companies such as, coiled tubing, nitrogen services, well control, drill pipes and blowout preventers, as well as inspection work for rigs and vessels.


Trican Well Services (TCW.TO / TOLWF.PK) is a nice Canadian oil service company that thankfully also trades in the States as a Pink Sheet! TOLWF is currently at 36.15, and TCW.TO is at 42.18. If you can get the Canadian version, get it. If not, you can settle for TOLWF.PK!


Superior Energy Services (SPN) The stock is trading at $23.09! Looking at SPN's earnings quarters, I see a company that is slowly growing into a formidable company, that is able to compete with the "big dogs"! SPN provides oilfield services to oil and gas companies that operate on the Gulf Coast and in the Gulf of Mexico. The company sells gas well drilling equipment and even sells some equipment in Canada, Middle East, Tobogo and Trinidad. This stock is still cheap and I can easily see it hitting the $33 range soon enough!


Calfrac Well Services (CFW.TO / CFWFF.PK) is arguably the best stock in the group. It is a Canadian Company and it also trades on the pink sheets as well. CFW.TO is trading at 38.11, and CFWFF is trading at 32.67. With Oil Sands exposure, Calfrac is set to grow tremendously in 2006! Keep your eyes on it!!

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9/29/05- Ok, finally I have some time to work on the next section!

Oil & Gas- Refining and Marketing Industry Group


Frontier Oil Corp (FTO) is hands down my favorite refiner! I like it because at $44.35, it is still inexpensive! I expect this stock to appreciate in stock price tremendously in the upcoming weeks and months. My advice is, buy some, forget about it and come back later and reap in the profits, cause this baby's going to $60 and beyond!


Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is my 2nd favorite refiner, even though it is still stronger than FTO. I like VLO as a long term investment as well. At $114.99, entry doesn't come cheap, but its well worth it, even if you can only afford 25-50 shares max! My opinion is that this stock will be eventually trading at $200+ in the upcoming weeks/months!

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Of course I have other favorites in the categories, but for now I want to just concentrate on the Oil and Gas stocks mentioned above. I know I didn't discuss a lot of Canadian Oils, ( I'm leaving that for my Oil Sands/Canadian Oil stock section-which I promise I will finish this weekend!) and Gas Utilities (which I will also try to talk about soon, as well).

1 Comments:

At 8:06 AM , Blogger Nick M. said...

Hey Dave,

Thanks, I'm glad you found some of the oil/gas stocks interesting, and most of all helpful in picking out some of the winners. I know there are alot of oil and gas stocks out there. It is all a matter of picking the good ones and not the bad ones!
You are right, CHK always does look like the winner and looks like it will continue to do so. Just be a little cautious with CHK. I know I said its still a good buy even at $38 or below, but at least wait for a pull back (which is bound to happen) to get in at a lower price (every couple of cents help!). Definitly check PDC as well (CHK owns some)and GSREF (CHK owns some of this as well). Yeah I know, a couple of months ago, who would have thought that oil stocks were going to be this profitable. I know everyone is talking about "oil going down to $30", but its not, at least not anytime soon. People try to compare the oil problem with the interenet bubble, not realizing that that is like comparing apples to oranges. Who knows how long this problem will last. Oil may hit $90 a barrel before it goes down. The truth is, Oil is something that we can run out of and as time goes by, and consumptions grows, we realize we may not have enough! If the governments DO NOT develop and create a reliable and accepted fuel source, then oil is not going down ANY Time soon!v BUT, we might as well profit from it and fill up our gas tanks with gas and our pockets with money.
And PLEASE! Do not substitute reading the Wall Street Journal to read my blog! I am not as knowledgable as they are...I have only been doing this for less than a year. While I do appreciate the comments (believe me, its refreshing for me to work on the blog), always read the WSJ and the IBD to gain a different insight and perspective. I do not have the time to cover a wide range of stuff, like they do. Still, thanks for the love and support Dave!

Later Dave

Nick

 

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