Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Monday

New Buy Candidates: FEED, HA, TNS

New Short Sale Candidates: APOL, CPLA, DM, DV, MXWL, NCC, STRA, ULBI

Add To: GU (on a dip)

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Friday

New Buy Candidates: GU, TNS

New Buy: GU (in at 12.58), TNS (in at 21.51)

New Short Sale Candidates: ARGN, COIN, PHH, SCHL, SMA


Add To:

Sold for Profit:


Sold for Loss: GU (covered)

On the Move: LSR, TNS, WEL

Here are three interesting stocks with strong technical setups. All three are performing well today.

Not So Bad After All?? Time To Bargain Hunt??

That is exactly what the institutions and the corrupt financial media want you to be believe. They want you to think that the credit crisis was simply just an exaggerated crisis and that it is time to go bargain hunting in stocks. This type of advice always leads to disaster. Unfortunately, the majority of people who invest in the stock market actually follow this un-sage-like advice. It is no wonder that the majority of the investing public doesn't even come close to beating the market. Instead of deciding on their own, they take the advice of institutions which have an entirely different agenda, both in the general markets and in individual stocks. Institutions need individual suckers (investors) to buy stocks in order for them to have an open market for them to sell their shares into. That is how the big banks and institutions bail out of their holdings. This can turn rather nasty in downtrends. The promotion of bargain hunting is what helps banks unload their shares to the unsuspecting public. I'm not trying to discourage new (and potential investors and traders). I'm simply trying to open your eyes to the harsh realities of investing and trading. Trading and investing is without a doubt, a cut-throat business where only the do-it-yourself investors and traders succeed.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Wednesday

New Buy Candidates: DSCP, DYAX, GENC, GEOI, HA, LL, LSR, PHTN, PPO, PRAN, QNTA, RBCN (rebuy), SNX, TECUA, TITN (rebuy), TNS, VLNC, VNUS, WYY

New Short Sale Candidates: SMA

Add To: IMAX, OME, SCL, XIDE

Note: There are alot of buy candidates (potential buys) for tomorrow. If the market follows through with strength, most will perform well. I would keep a close eye on the ones that are showing the most strength.

Random Market Thoughts and Observations

Currently, the DJIA is displaying more strength than the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. The DJIA is filled with big name company's that generally do not provide top notch growth. The NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 and to a lesser extend, the S&P indices contain the more speculative, higher growth and technology-orientated stocks that I crave. Until I see stocks with high quality chart patterns, I am not going to be putting more cash to work. For the last few days, the financial media networks have been basically shoving their bullish bias down our throats. But one has to ask him or herself. Is the worst really over? Did we really put in a bottom? The answer to both of them is no. I still haven't found any must own stocks and the charts on the indices still look terrible. I will try to post some charts by the end of the week to show you what I mean. For now, good luck and trade lightly (if you must).

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Tuesday

New Buy Candidates: ABPI, FADV, LL, SKIL, SOA (oversold bounce), VLNC, WSCI

New Short Sale Candidates:

Add To: SCL


Note: ABPI is already not a good buy candidate. With the stock down over 70%, I would avoid it.
VLNC was re-added to the list of buy candidates. I like VLNC's chart quite a bit right now. I may pick some up on a small dip.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Monday

New Buy Candidates: LKQX, NUS, PHTN, PPO, TECUA

New Short Sale Candidates:

Add To:

Surprisingly Bullish...

No matter how you view it, today was a surprisingly bullish day. For one, look at the volume on the DJIA and the NASDAQ. This was higher volume than I expected. To top it off, there are some nice charts begining to setup. Also, some of the few longs that I'm holding are starting to move up again (RBI, for instance). I'm not sure how long this bullishness will last, but I plan to take advantage of it. The strength will most likely be short term and will likely diminish once the indices find some resistance at their 50 day or 200 day MA's. I wouldn't be surprised if the DJIA or the NASDAQ actually bust through their 200 day MA's for a few days as well. Still after that happens, we will most likely head down again. Of course I could be wrong, so we'll have to just wait and see.
I also seem to have been wrong about Visa (V). Visa is showing impressive strength as well and is close to taking out its first day high.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Thursday

New Buy Candidates: DYAX, LSR (rebuy), VLNC

New Short Sale Candidates: BBL, BRP, BVN, CN, CNQ, FCX, IVN, NTES, SGR, TCK, TEF, TNH,

Add To: DECK (short), DRYS (short), MFA (short), NLY (short)

Big Bounce? No Big Deal...

Despite today's huge oversold bounce, one thing is still for certain. My shorts are still outperforming all my longs. In fact, almost all of the short sale candidates that I have recommended are already in the money. On the flip side, most of my buy candidates are still acting under the weather. So what gives? This is actually quite normal and just goes to show you that it pays to hold onto strong short positions during market downturns. That means even holding through 400 point bounces. One thing that I have learned from studying market history is that some of the biggest "up" days can be found in downtrends and some of the nastiest dips can be seen in up trends. This makes perfect sense and can be clearly seen in both up trends and downtrends. I still believe that the worst is not yet over. Sure, there will be people that disagree with me and others that will tell you to start buying financials and other stocks because they swear we hit the bottom. Let them do what they want. They haven't done their homework and most likely will not succeed when the next uptrend begins. This down trend is going to take some time and without a doubt, it will fool a lot of people, not once, but several times before a real bottom forms in. The best advice that I can give is to stay on the sidelines, especially if you are a beginner or do not depend on trading for income.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Monday

New Buy Candidates: NUS, PHTN

New Short Sale Candidates: PANL

Add To:

Volatility Throws the Indices All Over...

...the place. At one point, we were down over 300 points (-300+) and at another, we were up nearly 50 (+50 above 0). Meanwhile, at the same time, the VIX has shot up from a daily low of 26, up to nearly 33. This is a positive sign for those looking for some short term longs. If you look diligently enough, you may find some this weekend. Whatever you do, don't go crazy with any new long position. Even if we do have a bounce, it will be short term and the chances of making astronomical returns will still be rather slim.

Very Confusing Market...

This has to be the most confusing market environment ever! What is even more surprising is S&P proclaiming that we may already be at the end of the sub prime crisis. The market action is also starting to get very volatile. Earlier in the day, the DJIA was down over 200 points. Now it is getting very close to penetrating positive territory. I don't know whether to commit more funds to the long side or the short. My instinct is telling me to just sit on the sidelines and see what happens. For now, I am not adding more to any of my positions and I am not making any new trades. I'll work with what I have for now until the future trend becomes more clear.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Thursday

New Buy Candidates: DYAX, FEED*,GEOI, HDSN, PPO

Add To: AXYS, OME, XIDE, MFA (short), NLY(short)

New Short Sale Candidates: BABY, BG, CMO, COIN, DRYS, FSTR, JASO, LPL, SMTS

Sold for Profit:

Sold for Loss: SVNT

* I recommended FEED a few sessions ago but, unfortunatly, I never bought some for myself.

Trade Journal

New Buys:

Added To:

New Shorts: ABAX (in at 23.67), DRYS (61.01)

Shorts Sale Candidates Continue To Outperform

This should have been pretty obvious right from the open. Both of my new buy candidates flopped right from the beginning with STSI taking the bigger hit. On the flip side, the majority of the short sale candidates are doing quite well with most of them registering at least 4% gains. What else does one expect when we are in a downtrend?? This is why it is important to be flexible in the market. It doesn't matter if you are a long or short term trader or investor. Without short positions one cannot hope to outperform the market during a correction. If things do not improve by the end of the day, I will be forced to close out a few more longs and add more to my short sale cache.

Potential Short Sales

FSLR

Pros: A nice LOD close below the 50 day MA
--------------------------------
Cons: Volume is still below average. Remember, I'd like to see volume hit at least 6 M before its a perfect short.

Could experience some support at the 200 day MA

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Strategy: Initiate a small position at first. Add more if the stock pierces below the 200 day MA on above average volume. Close out position if the stock climbs back above the 50 day MA on strong volume.

FSLR - (3 month) Chart

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VCGH

Pros: Closed below its 200 day MA, near the LOD (down over 10%) and on heavy volume.

Cons: Low Float.

Strategy: This is a good time to create a small initial short position in VCGH. Add more to your position when the stock bounces up near the 50 or 200 day MA. Eliminate your position if the stock reclaims its 200 day MA on above average volume.

VCGH (3 Month) Chart

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Monday

New Buy Candidates: GENC, STSI

International Buy Candidates: BNK.TO (Bankers Petroleum-TSX)

New Short Sale Candidates: ARG, APPY, BOOM, CMTL, CRDC, HOKU, VCGH, VE, XNPT

Add To: XIDE, XTLB

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Friday

New Buy Candidates: EGO, FEED, MGH

New Short Sale Candidates: ANF, CNQR, RGA

Add To: DECK (short)

Trade Journal for Thursday

New Buys:

New Shorts: AOB, COST, GU, MFA, NLY, TMK, WBD

Added To: DECK (short)

Sold for Loss: NCOC

Keep an Eye on: CNH (as a short), ISRG (as a short)

Note: New short positions are small. I will add to them if they continue to show weakness.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Thursday

New Buy Candidates: TEC

New Buys (actual): SCL

New Short Sale Candidates: GU, RHB,

Add To: DECK (short)

Sold for Profit:

Sold for Loss: INET

Early 2008 Reflections...

Without a doubt, 2008 has already proven to be a wild ride. Although the year has just started, I can already see that its going to be a tough one. Right now, short to intermediate trades are the best way to play this erratic market. I've been trying to keep the amount of open positions small (in comparison to other years) and manageable. So far its working for me. I am also trying to stick to longer time frames on my trades. I've realized that one of my problems is that I sell my winning stocks way too soon. One of my past winners that continues to haunt me is COIN. Although I profited from it handsomely, I could have made a lot more just by holding it for another few weeks. Stocks such as COIN change my perspective about trading and make me believe that although I am a short term trader, I'd rather be a longer term trader or short term/active investor instead. While I agree that certain stocks should be traded for short term periods of time, the overall uptrends tend to last longer than what most traders expect. I plan on tweaking and refining my trading/investing strategy over the next few days/weeks. This is a good way for me to learn from my past mistakes.
Later...

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Tuesday/Market Commentary

New Buy Candidates: CPD, PRAN, SCL, WGW

New Short Sale Candidates: CEDC

Add To: JRCC, KGN

Sold for Profit:

Sold for Loss: TNDM (-9.64%), YTEC (-10.32%)