Trade Journal (Friday November 30, 2007)

New Buys: DEPO, SHEN (Other long candidates did not qualify as new longs)



Add To: APEI, AXYS, GVP, IMNY, MASI, SHEN, SLT, VSL



Sold for Profit: CEL (+17.8%)





Sold for Loss: SIRT (-8.65%)

On the Radar Screen....

Here are a few more longs to keep on the radar screen for tomorrow...

New Longs: ATNI, CSIQ, DAR, DEPO, ESLR, FLDR, PFWD, SHEN (rebuy), TKC

Add To: ADAM, ALDN, APEI, AXYS, GVP, IMNY, LTRE, MASI, PSMT, SLT, SXE, VSL

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Thursday November 29, 2007

New Longs: ANSR, EPM, MASI, SIRT, VSL

Add To: ABAX, GVP, ININ

Sell Profit: ENS (maybe 25% of position)

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Tuesday November 27, 2007

New Longs: APEI, ARD, BITI, BOOM (rebuy), BUCY, EGOV, EPB, EXAS, FOSL, ISH, JRCC, SKIL, SXE, UFI, VRSN, WATG


New Shorts: BKE, CIT, DE, EFV, EWI, GOLD, GSF, IDCC, NWL, RYAAY, TRK, XRAY,

Keep an Eye On: CBF, WCG

Add To: ATRO, AUTH, ENS, GHM

Sold- Profit: BIDZ (+73.6%)

Sold- Loss: IIT (-2.5%)

After the Close

New Longs and Shorts will be posted later on tonight. Friday's trading and price action was irrelevant so I will need to see which stocks qualify after today's close since the volume and price action will be more meaningful after a full market day.

Back to Business....

On Monday, it will be back to business, as usual. As you may have noticed, I haven't posted much during the past few days (perhaps maybe a week or two). During market corrections (such as the one we are in), I like to kick back a bit and catch up on other things. Its not that the action isn't important. Its just that there aren't many attractive setups to go long. So, I divert my daily research to other endeavors, such as catching up on some books on the markets and trading. They help to motivate me and keep my discipline in check. I will try to list a few good trading books. They will make great gifts to anyone that is interested in absorbing some insight from the past great traders and stock pickers.

Happy Turkey Day!

Thanksgiving is definitely one of my favorite holidays. It's a wonderful opportunity to get with friends and family to share good food and good times. I am doing most of the cooking this year but its all good. Cooking is my second passion (my first is the stock market) and I do not mind creating and trying new foods and tastes. It will be a lot of work (over 30 people are coming over), but I will be able to handle it.

Anyway, I just wanted to wish all of my readers, their friends and family, a Happy Thanksgiving. Let us give thanks to all that we're thankful for in our lives. So go ahead and toast it up this Thanksgiving and have a great time!

Industry Group Strength: Electric Utility Stocks

Keep an eye on Electric Utility stocks as they are showing impressive strength despite the negative market conditions. I will post a few strong stocks (and charts) later on today.

AYE, CEG, CNL, DUK, GXP, HE, LNT, NU, SCG, SO, SRP, WEC

Traditionally, utilities may have been regarded as boring, slow investments. In today's highly volatile and negative market conditions, utilities provide a short term haven for both traders and investors looking to park their cash until things clear up.

SO

WEC

As you can tell from the charts, both SO and WEC are bottoming out. I decided to not post all of featured stocks charts because they all happen to look quite similar. This is due to an over all sector/industry move which has all (at least most of) the electric utility stocks bottoming out. Utility stocks are defensive stocks and they usually receive institutional love when the market is in a consolidation phase. Big banks and money managers use them as defensive investments. Other defensive stock groups include the various food industries and medical hospitals, among others.

Holding Their Own: ABAX, EHTH, ENS, ODC

Despite the general markets poor performance, there are several stocks that seem to be holding their own. Stocks such as ABAX, EHTH, ENS and ODC seem to be doing just fine even while most stocks and the general markets are continuously being pummeled into submission. Because of their incredible strength, it is a good idea to keep them on the radar and in your portfolio.

Intra-Day Thoughts: The Markets Are Going To Have To Try Harder Than This...

...if they hope to regain their uptrend. With the DJIA up a measly 60 points (off from its intra-day high of 13,211), its clear to see that this bounce may be a bit harder than it seems. Credit worries are continuing to mount. Rising oil prices are not helping either. Even the Feds multi-billion dollar injection of funds into the economy has done little to ease investors and traders fears. Of course, it is still too early in the day to know where the market will close. Anything is possible. All I'm saying is that I'm still not impressed with the market bounce...yet.

Former Market Leaders Continue to Fall Hard/ Some Short Sale Candidates

With the current negative market action, it shouldn't be a surprise that the former bull market leading stocks are taking it to the chin today. AAPL, DRYS, GOOG, PTR, RIMM, SNP

The Risky/Highly Volatile Shorts

LDK short. LDK has already fallen quite a bit from its highs and was one of the first solar plays to get hammered. I would short it only if it nears the 50 day MA. If you short it too far away from its 50 day MA, you are increasing your risk on the short trade.

MFW short. Previously, MFW was a strong stock that ran from 18/20 up to 70 in a matter of months. Now it is looking weak and decrepit. Now is a good time to short a bit of it.

SHI short. SHI, a former China high flier has pierced its 200 day MA once again. I am looking for further weakness in the stock before shorting. A high volume drop is all that it needs to confirm it as a short.

Less Risky Shorts:

BEN

FO

FTEK

MSM

X

ZEP

Good Time for Some Short Positions...

Today's tell tale signs have already confirmed what I was thinking since last week: Time to add some short positions. Without a doubt, some of the most profitable (and riskiest short positions) will be found in the old leaders. I already mentioned DRYS, PTR and SNP back in early October. I thought that I grabbed them right at their tops but I was actually a few days off (and one parabolic run off), from calling their exact tops. Anyway, all three are good shorts for now. Just know that these three are probably the most volatile of shorts and will definitely whip you around. If one had nerves of steel, they could have easily shorted these mid October and reaped some nice profits (I couldn't do it). I will try and post some more (safer) shorts later on tonight. Later.

Nice Bounce!

You've got to love today's +2.5 % bounce on all the indices. Late day dip buyers helped lead the way. But they weren't the only ones buying the dips. The markets wouldn't have rallied so strong if it weren't for the institutional muscle behind the scenes. Now while my three favorite stocks did not act as well, other close favorites fared well. ABAX, BIDZ, CEL, IIT and others were sure not to disappoint. I do have a few new long ideas for tomorrow and the rest of the week but I want to first wait and see how the market and the individual stocks themselves act during market hours. Later.

There Are Only Three Stocks...

That I currently still like: AUTH, BIOS, and II. All three of these stocks have been quietly accumulated through this market mess and still possess high quality chart setups and technical patterns. If I had three (and only three) stocks to choose from to play, these would be the ones.

Possible Support or Delaying the Inevitable?

I will be looking at today's close in order to get a better sense and understanding of the markets current condition. In order for the DJIA to stabilize, it needs to bounce off the 13k level and reclaim its 200 day MA in the upcoming days and weeks. Otherwise, this is just an oversold bounce with resistance (instead of support) at the the 200 day MA.

Big Ugly Correction?

It looks like Wednesday's Big Ugly Close is turning into something bigger and uglier. Anyone ready for a Big Ugly Correction? Ready or not, we may have already begun to participate in a bear market environment. Over the past two days I have been busy liquidating most of my portfolios. I have few long positions left and I have begun to add shorts to my arsenal. The introduction of short positions is a great hedging tool and coupled with long positions, helps reduce some of the market stress on the portfolio. Plus, it helps me sleep better at night. Regardless of what happens, it was a great (and profitable) run. I started late in this bull market (end of 2004, early 2005), so I missed out on some of the prime action. I was also new to trading and investing and I didn't fully appreciate the importance of grabbing trends and breakouts right at the beginning. I suppose I must have been nervous, fearful, or just not ready to tackle those opportunities. Regardless, I have learned alot during this bull market. I know that the next time an uptrend resumes, I will be ready to take 100% advantage of it and plan to continue to share my experiences in the market with the readers of my blog.

-Nick M.

The Big Ugly Close

Todays big ugly close left the DJIA teetering right over its 200 day MA. If were going to have a bounce its going to have to happen soon. Otherwise, if we pierce the 200 day MA, we may have to actually kiss the primary uptrend goodbye. Still, despite today's strong dose of pessimissm, there were several stocks and industry groups that did rather well. Medical Product makers and Fertilizer stocks were able to do quite well. Some notable stocks in these groups include: II, and CF, MOS, POT

Waiting for the Close...

I don't have much to say about today's action. All I can say is that if you feel frustrated with today's action, you should know that you are not alone. I share the same frustration. It feels very disheartening to see gains instantly crushed the next day. It feels as if we cannot even hold a decent days gains. This is definitely a day traders market at the moment. For now, I'm going to keep a watchful eye on my holdings and make the necessary adjustments to the portfolios. It is important to bear in mind that this bull rally has been going on for a while now. If we do hit a bear market it is important for one to keep losses small. The last thing you want is to get wiped out before the next bull market cycle begins. Good luck to everyone. Lets get through this the right way.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Tuesday November 6, 2007

Buy Ideas: CEL, CELL, ININ, PSEM, STRN

Add To: ASTI, ATHN, IIN, TRCA, VIRC, VLNC

Also keep gold/silver stocks on the radar as they may recieve a boost today from rising gold futures.

In Play: ASTI, ATHN, TRCA, VIRC, VLNC

Here are today's In Play Candidates: ASTI, ATHN, TRCA, VIRC, VLNC

Buying Opp.

With a majority of the indices bouncing off of the LOD's, today's action may qualify as a buying opportunity. Most of the stronger tech and medical (NASDAQ) issues are showing strength as they are continuously snatched up by dip buyers. Of course, its still too early in the day to know how the markets will close but if the current action continues we may actually shake off most of the days selling pressure.

Stock Picks and Trade Ideas for Monday November 5, 2007

New Buy Ideas: ABAX, ATRO (rebuy), NSU

Add To: ARTG, EDAC, II, IIN, TISI

Current Favorite Charts...

Some of my current favorite charts

ARTG


ARTG is a promising micro-cap tech issue that has recently broken out of its base. It has been consolidating for the last few days (on lower vol.), waiting for the next wave of heavy buying to lift it up to the next level.




II



II has a very strong technical chart that looks promising. The stock seems to have finally bottomed out and is in the middle of working on the right side of its base.






IIN


Although IIN may looks a bit extended, Friday's pivot point shows that the stock still has strength as buyers took advantage of its intra-day dip to 13.50, helping the stock close near its HOD.

In Play: ARTG, AUTH, GVP, II

Here are todays In Play candidates: ARTG, AUTH, GVP, II

Back Down to the 200 Day MA...

As the market weakness continues, the indices have nowhere to go but down. The DJIA and the S&P have suffered the worst hit as they are just hovering over their 200 day MA. The NASDAQ is still in better shape (tech earnings are still top-notch), as it is still clinging to its 20 day MA. The 200 day MA's on the DJIA and the NASDAQ are currently support for the indices. Any violation of this can spell further trouble for the uptrend that the markets have been fighting to hold.