New Swing Trades for the Week of 2/26/07

Hey guys,

Over the past few days, I have been searching and scanning through hundreads of stocks and found several that I beleive make good trades. On the flipside, I also keep finding other stocks that have been faltering (due to earnings and other negative news/events) that are begining to look like good shorts. So here we go...

Longs:

MDU Resources Group (MDU - NYSE) 3 month chart

MDU at 27.10




















Vicon Industries (VII - AMEX) 3 month chart

VII at 7.77
Great accumulation on the right side of the chart.

Pullback starting to weaken...

As I had expected, the third day of the pullback was rather lax with most stocks hitting support levels and bouncing off of the days lows. We've had a rather mild pullback that has spanned across the last 3 days. Is it over? I hope. Was it neccessary? Without a doubt. If you have been buying strong, market rally leading stocks, the pullback probably did not affect you that much. I experienced a very small loss in one of my volatile portfolio and some actual gains in my other two. Not too shabby. Some of the notable losers were BKE and DFZ. Still, I'm not sweating either stocks bland action just yet. Other stocks such as EVVV, MLNX, AWI, KALU, MNTG, KEYN, TONS, PENX, and SSTI provided good add on points throughout the day. Some stocks even posted decent gains today such as HINT, ESEA, AGL, AME, SYNL, AXE, INXI and several others.

Another Pullback....

Todays pullback was just that, a pullback. I hope the shorts do not mistake this for the end of the world which I am sure they are. I don't know about you, but my portfolio was only down slightly today. As a matter of fact, there were several stock that actually performed quite well today, despite the drop in the Dow. Basically, today was a good time to add to your good positions. I did not hesitate to take advantage of the pullback and therefore added to my (better) performing positions accordingly. Of course, not all of my picks and holdings fared well. EVVV, which I recommended yesterday too a larger than expected pullback and has nestled itself ontop of its 10 day MA. I think that my timing was just off on it. I still believe that it will make a good trade in the near term future. Today's action was simply a discount for those who wanted to initiate a position. In fact, strong tech earnings helped the Nasdaq close up 6.52 points.

Tommorrow's Add ons: BKE, YBTVA, SGIC, MPR, MNTG, HINT, GLDD, BARE (good time to add to again), PSYS, FLL (bouncing back on hi-vol), CNU (bouncing back on hi-vol.), AGL, ATRI, SJW (looks like a bottom, time to add), ESEA, MLNX, KALU, DFZ, ...

Time to Snatch up: TONS (kind of risky, so play it small until it shapes up better), TBSI, MR, TWGP, MT

Stock Indices Close at the top of Their Range...

Hey guys,


Today was a great close. Stock indices closed at the top of their range all across the board. I'm talking about the Dow, the Nas, the S&P, the Russell, you name it. I'm not talking about a 52wk high, but still, as a short term indicator this is very bullish stance. Does this mean that everything is perfect? Not exactly. Not every stock closed at the top of their range and not all stocks are at or near 52wk highs. But the average stock is performing well.

Add to: AWI, ATRI, PSYS, ESEA, SYNL, HINT, MNTG, MAPS, AGL, BKE, TWI, GLDD, KALU, INXI, DMRC, SSI, ....

New IPO's that I like: ARAY, OMPI, PRTS, NCMI, MLNX

New Short Ideas: EW - Also keep the previously mentioned shorts in mind as well, such as NTRI.


New long ideas: NDN, DLTR, TUP, WPZ, HOFT, SSI, MAPS, MATW, PXR, VTAL, CSV, STEI, SCI, POWL, BEZ, HRBN, RTI, CRS, USAP (mentioned before), ANST (still good), CDNS, LAVA, BCSI, SFNT, ENTU (i), LVB, TWIN, TRN, WAB, WNC (i), TOD (wait a bit), PCAR, MOV, POT, SQM, LXU, SMG, CF, HAN, CX, RMIX (i) - Note- I tried to pick some longs that were begining to break out or that weren't very extended from several key moving averages. In addition, some of the picks have been previously mentioned therefore, they aren't brand spanking new.

Roll With the Winners...

If you want to maximize your profits, you've got to buy the top stocks. Buy the ones that are preparing to breakout or the ones that have recently broken out a nice chart pattern. Don't waste your time and money chasing stocks that you think are bottoming out. Let them bottom out and then double or triple bottom out and then, finally, when it looks like they will start to work on the bottom of the right side of the base, then you can buy a "bottomed out" stock. Anyways, here are a few stocks that I think look good for the buy. I have positions in most of them but not all of them...

Hot Stocks: AWI, AMAC, ATRI, ALC, PSYS, ESEA, GBR, SYNL, CNU, GLDD, MNTG, TMM, RHB (maybe), SYNM, ALGT (good time to add), TWI

New IPOs that I like: AHII, EIG, ARAY, MLNX

Shorts: NTRI, ALL, KNOT

Keep an eye on/chop block: EPHC (they beat estimates but for some reason that info isn't listed anywhere), INXI, FLL, AGL, AME, TRMM.

The Chart is Always Right...

For those of you who actually read my blog, you must have already realized that I do not rely on fundamentals. Technicals are my game and they are advantages in this game. I am still an amateur but I am learning fast. I have been profitable since I started trading, even during in the midst of that little bear rally almost a year ago. But I am still learning. I am learning to control my emotions...learning to be more disciplined and adhering to rules and strategies. I don't know if most of the other traders are using advanced software to find their picks or inside info, or whatever. My technique is rather low tech and I do not waste my time on fancy, shmansy crap. My technique is not 100% guaranteed (I have several bad picks as well of course). The technique I use would also probably not work for everyone. That is because the way I interpret a chart may differ from how someone else may interpret a chart. They really are more subjective than objective. This actually makes me think about an incident a few months ago. The incident involved CRM and the countless hoardes of traders who were short. I remember trying to explain to them in the Yahoo board that they were wasting their time and that they should cover their short position before their losses escalate. Well to make a long story short, they didn't take this advice too well. They were furious with my opinions and advice and so, they decided to heckle me. I even tried to explain to them that the chart pattern, which resembled a cup with handle, was bullish and meant that an upside breakout may occur if the conditions were right. Well they heckled me about that too. Months later, the stock is at 50. I was recommending it when it was at low 30's. The whole point of the story is, no one can read a darn chart. And even if they can, they allow fundamentals to cloud their judgement. The shorts defense was that the P/E Ratio was too high and that the insider selling was a signal to sell and short. It didn't matter. The chart is always right.

Happy Ending...

Hey guys,


Today's close was the happy ending to a great week that investors and traders up until now have only been dreaming about. Sure there was some profit taking, but it was light and orderly across all the indices. Not too shabby! So what did good today and for the week as a whole. Several of my previously mentioned picks have gone up quite considerably. A few of the notable winners were HURC, CYNO, AWI, PSYS, SYNL and many others. Some of the notable losers have been INXI (still good), FLL, and SJW. Several stocks seem to be bouncing off support as well such as KALU, BKE and a few others.

Stocks continue to creep higher...

Hey folks,


So far, what a week! If we can close strong on Friday it would be even more incredible. Still, with every move up, investors and traders are scratching their heads and becoming more skeptical of the supposed pullback. Is there supposed to be one? Sure, there always comes a time when institutions and investors decide to take profits and trigger a pullback. But all that depends on several factors such as market and economy sentiment, timing, news, earnings strength and greed. I'm not trying to get bearish on ya, but just trying to kick in a little reality for you. Anyways, enough market talk. Lets get into the stocks. So what did good today. One of the today's surprising winners is a stock called Armstrong World Industries (AWI). I have been recommending this stock since it was at 40. The stock jumped to 52 on news that the company is considering a review of strategic alternatives (whatever the heck that means) which means that it may consider putting itself up for sell. This of course is just a rumor and not exactly a true statement. It is simply just a "may" and not a definite. If you ask me, I believe that this was just a sly ploy in getting institutions and investors attention about the company. AWI is not very well known at all. All I know, the company is still worth alot more than 52 so if I were you, I'd buy before the institutions push this up even further on speculation alone.

Another interesting stock to keep an eye on is American Medical Alerts (AMAC). This is a good buy on a technical level as the chart is starting to perk up and set itself up. The stock has recently rested and DB'ed. Any significant increase in accumulation or news will set this stock in motion. Now is the time to get in before the wheels start rolling.

SYNL - I have kept an eye on this one for a while and it looks ready for the next leg up.

ESEA - relatively unknown ship company that has a chart filled with accumulation

Right now the Japanese Yen is hot. If you want to play it but do not like futures, try out FXY.

Futures: Long Cocoa, Cotton, Japanese Yen, Nikkei, Lumber, Eurodollar. Keep an eye on Sugar and Coffee.

DMRC looks promising. I would buy when the stock takes its daily dips close to the 10day MA.

School and College stocks seem to be ala mode recently. EDU, CPLA, CECO, ESI all look good. I like CPLA the most and EDU is nice too.

Also, YBTVA and TMM both look good.

V-Day Love

Without a doubt, the markets were showing some Valentines Day Love to investors and traders. Call it a gift or confidence in the markets and the economy-call it what you want. All that matters is that stocks were able to extend the delicious gains that were attained from yesterdays blockbuster move. Today's move was also equally impressive as it helped the DJIA soar to new heights. In fact, today's close is the highest close ever. I know, I know the shorts will start ranting and raving that the move is over and that the market is going to plunge now. Nonsense. If you believe that then you will never make a dime in this environment. The markets are due for a pullback and pullback they will. Either by tomm, the end of the week, whenever. Still, I believe that the pullback will be small and temporary. I believe we have more room to go. There are many stocks that are starting to form cup bases, double bottoms and begining the right side of their bases. The breakouts that we are seeing in some stocks are fresh and earnings driven. They are providing the catalyst that will help spark many more upside moves. You don't have to believe me. This is just my opinion. I've been long since the day the markets bottomed out a few months ago. Nothing has changed in the trend to persuade me to start shorting. I posted a few shorts the other day for those who really want to short. If you want go ahead. Stocks that are failing the rally are garbage and should be shorted. But remember, 3/4 stocks follow the general market. By going short, you are increasing your risk and not your reward. That's just my two cents. Do you.

End of the Day Recap...

Hey folks,

Just wanted to give you a heads up on todays action. First things first. Sure we had a sell-off, but it wasn't that bad. There were several stocks that got hammered that I am a little PO'd about (VNUS, BKE) but its all good. VNUS looks like a sell if it doesn't pick itself up off its 50day MA by the end of the week. I believe that BKE is still good- just hang on and give it a chance. Several other stocks that took a dip include HINT, EPHC, ATX, FLL, ROCM, AGL, AWI.

Recent new buys include: SBH, SYNL, MPR, AME, ESEA, GLDD and TMM

Stocks that performed well today include: TWI, BARE, PSYS, ATRI, INXI, CALM, ALC, CSU, CYNO, KALU, among others

Short Ideas: BMC, NYX, RVBD, ARXT, CTRP

Long Ideas: HANS, RVSN, UVV, CYNO (in case you missed it when I 1st. rec'd it), MAPS, ASD, VSNT, OHI, DSX, TA, EIG, IO, KALU, ACOR, ESRX (double bottom)

Earnings Watch: DAKT (on V-Day)

Loser Stock of the Month: MPEL (to the idiots who didn't think it could fall past 19, I told you so)

Stocks Bounce off of the day's lows

Hey guys,

Did you see the bounce? Ya gotta love it. First we are down over 80 points and then at the end, its not so bad after all. We have to thank the retail stocks and their strong sales numbers on this one. Speaking of retail stocks, there is one retail stock that I believe makes a good trade. I've had an eye on this one for a while but I never pulled the trigger. I then forgot about it for a while until today. The stock is BKE (Buckle Inc). Its sort of a low-key retail stock, but probably not for long. It usually trades 140k shares a day. Today it traded nearly 430k shares. It is fair to say that the big boys are starting to pay attention to it. I believe that this is a great entry point for anyone who wants to go long. And now for the fundamantal B.S. that fundamental investors look for. The stock is cheap with a P/E of 20 and EPS of 1.76. Revenue has been steadily increasing and January same store sales are up. There, are you happy?

Buckle Inc (BKE - NYSE) at 36.06 3 month chart

Another good stock to keep an eye on is AWI. I have mentioned this stock several times in the past. There isn't a lot of info on the fundamentals of this stock, but I could care less. I started accumulating this stock based on the strong technical chart pattern. I'll worry about the fundamentals when it is time to.

Armstrong World Industries (AWI- NYSE) at 47.18

Stocks End up Slightly Positive By the Close...

Hey folks,

Nice Close, eh? For a while there I thought that we would have closed in negative territory. Instead, bulls created a buying opportunity out of todays dip and took advantage of it. That is what I like to see. Unfortunatly, there were still many stocks that did not rebound from the morning dip. Some such as FLL, VNUS, ROCM, SGIC ended up closing at the low of the day. It happens. I still like all of them, especially FLL. Today represented another buying opportunity in the stock for those who wanted to take it.

Todays winners were HMIN, AME, AWI, HMIN, CALM, KALU

New Picks and Some Current Winners...

Hey guys,


Check out some new longs




Venus Med Technologies (VNUS) ---- 10.22 on the Nasdaq

























Ametek Inc (AME) at 34.97 on the NYSE

AME 3- month chart
























Allegiant Travel Co (ALGT)


I've been in ALGT since day one at 25 a share. I took some profits on Friday as I have earned a handsome return on this hot stock. I still plan on holding the rest of my position and may even consider buying more shares when the price comes down a bit. At the moment, the stock has broken too far out of its trend channel. This signifies a higher risk vs reward situation. If you want to add to your position or initiate a position, I would wait until it come down a bit. Of course, it may just continue to shoot straight up more, but still, the risk outweighs the reward in this situation. Just wait it out a bit.




Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)

Just a boring food stock? Or is CALM something more. The increase in volume and share price seems to think the latter.

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)

Although BKD has been rather sluggish during the past several months, I think it is a good long-term buy at this price. Nursing and retirement homes are a good long-term bet given the fact that more and more people are living longer than ever before. I have recommended BKD before and even ACR ( a while ago before BKD aquired it). I have even mentioned ALC, CSU, FVE and GHCI. The bottom line is, I like retirement/nursing home stocks a lot and will continue to endorse them.

Stage Stores Inc (SSI) Here is a stock that I have recently begun to watch. Although on the surface, they may seem as nothing special, they are a perfect edition to an investors account. Basically I like this stock for the long run. In additon, the recent double bottom-like chart formation is perfect for a swing trade as well. The stock bounced up to 22.26 and off its 50 day MA on high volume (following an upgrade). This is an ideal place to add.

Stage Stores Inc (SSI - NYSE) at 22.26

Stocks Finish Week on Strong Note...

Hey folks,

What a week! I have been so busy with school that I haven't had a chance to post for a bit, but I am posting today to just give a heads up on things. For one thing, continue to add to your top stocks and get rid of any lagging stocks. I expected some stocks to pull back today on profit taking so its no big deal. If for any reason you have a stock that posted bad earnings and dropped a huge percentage, get rid of it before the losses escalate. Instead just buy another stock that may have already reported great earnings and is breaking out. Do not be afraid of grabbing the stocks that are breaking out, such as WEBX, SILC, ROCM, CUTR, CNH, CROX, CRM, etc. They are hitting new highs and breaking out on high volume for a reason-they are doing well and institutions and smart investors are buying them up. You may feel that you missed a 7% gain on some of them but if you continue to hesitate, you may be kicking yourself in the a$$ a few weeks later when you missed a 30% profit.